OPTIMAL RISK-BASED DESIGN OF CHAO PHRAYA RIVER FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM FOR BANGKOK

Abstract

Risk-based   design   is   a  design   approach   developed   for  quantifying  the probability of failure and the expected  annual damage cost of a structural  system subject  to variations of load such as the river flood level and of resistance such as the strength of flood protection dikes. The approach considers the joint probability density function of the load and the resistance in the computation of the probability of failure and the expected annual damage cost.  In this  study,  an  optimal  risk-based  design  procedure  of  a  flood  control  system  is developed. The design approach is a computational framework using four relevant techniques, namely flood  flow  simulation  analysis, coincident  flood  frequency  analysis,  load-resistance analysis and optimization  of risk-based design. It is applied to determine the optimal  capacity of the flood control system for Bangkok based on a maximum net benefit.